Market Muted While Celebrating Thanksgiving

Amidst the Thanksgiving holiday, with the U.S. equity market closed, market observers anticipate subdued trading in the Dollar Index (DXY).

Amidst the Thanksgiving holiday, with the U.S. equity market closed, market observers anticipate subdued trading in the Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices throughout the festive season. Concurrently, the trajectory of oil prices remains uncertain, as the rescheduled OPEC+ meeting casts a shadow on decisions related to production cuts, introducing an element of ambiguity in the oil market. Meanwhile, Japan’s latest core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading exceeded the previous figure but fell short of the forecasted number. Despite this, the Japanese Yen exhibits a relatively flat performance against its currency counterparts, as the uptick in Japan’s inflation data seems to have had minimal impact on the currency’s movements.

---

Current rate hike bets on 13rd December Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (95.0%) VS 25 bps (5%)    

---

Market Overview

Economic Calendar

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

Despite the initial boost from upbeat US Initial Jobless Claims, the US Dollar retreated, reflecting ongoing concerns about the economic outlook amid a series of disappointing data. With US holidays in play, Dollar movements are expected to remain subdued, prompting investors to closely monitor forthcoming economic indicators for potential trading signals.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 48, suggesting the index might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.

Resistance level: 104.15, 104.55

Support level: 103.60, 103.05

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices experienced a slight rebound in thin US trading sessions, supported by the depreciation of the US Dollar. However, with subdued market movements during US holidays, investors are eagerly awaiting clearer directions in the gold market post-holidays.

Gold prices are trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 55, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 2005.00, 2025.00

Support level: 1985.00, 1965.00

GBP/USD，H4

The Pound Sterling maintains its upward trajectory against the subdued U.S. dollar. The Sterling’s ascent is attributed to a robust performance driven by a better-than-expected UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading, instilling confidence among traders in the resilience of the Sterling. As the market transitions into the Thanksgiving holiday, moderate volatility is anticipated for the Cable, reflecting a relatively stable trading environment during the festive period.

GBP/USD is trading in an uptrend trajectory, but the bullish momentum is easing. The RSI remain at the upper region, but the MACD has a lower high pattern, suggesting there might be a trend reversal for the Cable. 

Resistance level: 1.2585, 1.2720

Support level: 1.2395, 1.2305

EUR/USD，H4

The Euro saw a rebound, buoyed by positive economic data from the European Union, particularly in Germany, where both services and manufacturing PMI data surpassed expectations. This suggests underlying strength in the EU economy, providing a contrast to the challenges faced by the US.

EUR/USD is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 53, suggesting the pair might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline.

Resistance level: 1.0950, 1.1065

Support level: 1.0835, 1.0750

AUD/USD，H4

The Australian dollar maintained its robust position against the U.S. dollar, trading at elevated levels, while market volatility remained subdued during the Thanksgiving holiday transition. Simultaneously, market participants eagerly await a new economic stimulus plan from the Chinese government specifically designed to address challenges in the property market. Anticipated measures hold the potential to stimulate China’s proxy currency, including the Australian dollar, adding an additional layer of interest to the currency’s performance.

The Aussie dollar traded flat above its support level at 0.652. The RSI is flowing in the upper region, but the MACD is approaching the zero line from above, suggesting the bullish momentum has eased. 

Resistance level: 0.6610, 0.6710

Support level: 0.6510, 0.6395

USD/JPY, H4

The USD/JPY pair is once more hovering near a pivotal liquidity zone. Despite Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling short of market expectations, its elevation compared to the preceding reading indicates a sustainable level of inflation in Japan. This has fostered market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might consider normalising its monetary policy in the coming year. Surprisingly, the release of this crucial economic data did not significantly impact the strength of the Yen, as minimal movement was observed in the currency following the unveiling of the Core CPI figures.

The USD/JPY pair came to its pivotal liquidity zone, where a break above suggested a bullish trend. The RSI has been gaining while the MACD has crossed below and is approaching the zero line, suggesting a bullish momentum is forming. 

Resistance level: 150.40, 151.70

Support level: 149.29, 144.39

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices extended losses amidst lingering uncertainties stemming from the unexpected delay in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. The group’s intentions regarding production cuts remain unclear, adding to market apprehension. Investors are keenly watching the rescheduled OPEC+ meeting on November 30 for crucial signals on oil output.

Oil prices are trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI si at 49, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 78.80, 80.75

Support level: 74.50, 72.60